Casey Mittelstadt Returns to Buffalo as Sabres Set to Face Avalanche

The Buffalo Sabres will see a familiar face on the other end of the ice as they host the Colorado Avalanche at KeyBank Center on Tuesday. Forward Casey Mittelstadt returns to Buffalo for the first time since being traded on March 6th for defenseman Bowen Byram. Mittelstadt played parts of seven seasons for the Sabres before catching on with the Avalanche.

Mittelstadt has 18 points in 25 games for the Avs, which puts him on an 82-game pace of 59. Colorado has been decimated by injuries and absences for most of the season, leaving the second-line pivotman to center linemates that are usually in the team’s bottom six.

On the other end of the trade, Bowen Byram’s stock is on the rise. Since his promotion to the Sabres’ top pair with Rasmus Dahlin, the two have been driving offense at an elite level. Byram has four goals and 14 points in 24 games this season.

More Byram: Bowen Byram Primed to Thrive Under Ruff

Where to Watch

Gametime: 7:00 p.m. ET

Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)

TV: MSG; ALT; KTVD

Stream: Gotham Sports; ESPN+ (Out of market)

Radio: WGR550

Sabres Gameday

The Sabres enter the game on a three-game losing streak. Buffalo’s schedule is full of ebbs and flows, so the season’s ups and downs are nothing new. Head coach Lindy Ruff believes the recent string of losses is due to a lack of better plays in the offensive zone.

More: Rollercoaster Season Taking Right Turn for Sabres in Standings

“I’m looking at the plays where we’re taking a shot where there’s just a better play,” Ruff said. “We’ve had a few shots where we’ve shot off the dot where we’ve had guys going back door.”

We’ve heard Ruff’s term “next play” a lot this season. With the goaltending and defensive play in a good spot, it’s been heightened recently.

The lines have been shuffled around as the coaching staff looks for a spark. Jason Zucker is promoted to the Sabres’ top line, while JJ Peterka will skate with Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson. That leaves a new trio of Ryan McLeod, Jiri Kulich, and Jack Quinn together, which makes the line deployment against Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon a mystery.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen worked in the starter’s net during the morning skate and is the projected starting goalie.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche are getting healthier with the recent returns of wingers Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin to the lineup. However, Colorado is still without Ross Colton, Miles Wood, Jonathan Drouin, and Gabriel Landeskog upfront. They’re also missing Josh Manson and Oliver Kylington on the blueline.

The significant absences from the lineup have undoubtedly contributed to their modest 13-12-0 record. The goaltending has also been a huge detractor.

Per MoneyPuck, incumbent starter Alexandar Georgiev has saved 9.1 goals under expected. That’s good for second-worst in the NHL. Justus Annunen, who was recently traded for Scott Wedgewood, saved 4.8 goals under expected.

The Avalanche, of course, are lifted by their superstars. Nathan MacKinnon leads the team with 36 points in 25 games. Mikko Rantanen has 34 points, and Cale Makar has 32 to lead all NHL defensemen.

Injury Report

Buffalo Sabres

• Sam Lafferty (Lower Body) Out
• Jordan Greenway (Undisclosed) Week-to-week [IR]
• Mattias Samuelsson (Lower Body) Week-to-week [IR]

Colorado Avalanche

• Oliver Kylington (Upper Body) Out
• Jonathan Drouin (Upper Body) Out
• Josh Manson (Upper Body) Out [IR]
• Ross Colton (Foot) Out [IR]
• Miles Wood (Upper Body) Out [IR]
• Gabriel Landeskog (Knee) Out [IR]

Projected Lineups

Buffalo Sabres

Forwards (Confirmed)

Jason Zucker – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Zach Benson

Jiri Kulich – Ryan McLeod – Jack Quinn

Beck Malenstyn – Peyton Krebs – Nicolas Aube-Kubel

Defense (Confirmed)

Rasmus Dahlin – Bowen Byram

Owen Power – Henri Jokiharju

Jacob Bryson – Connor Clifton

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Source: Lance Lysowski, The Buffalo News

Colorado Avalanche

Forwards (Projected)

Artturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen

Nikolai Kovalenko – Casey Mittelstadt – Valeri Nichushkin

Joel Kiviranta – Ivan Ivan – Logan O’Connor

Nikita Prishchepov – Parker Kelly – Chris Wagner

Defense (Projected)

Devon Toews – Cale Makar

Samuel Girard – Sam Malinski

Calvin de Haan – John Ludvig

Goalie (Projected)

Alexandar Georgiev

Betting Breakdown

Believe it or not, the PuckLuck model favors the Buffalo Sabres over the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday. The sportsbooks vehemently differ, listing the Avalanche around -160. Those odds imply a 62% chance of Colorado winning.

PuckLuck does not like the putrid goaltending of the Avalanche this season, so if Georgiev starts, the model will show a nice edge on the moneyline and puckline for the Sabres. It’s this kind of game that an unbiased statistical model allows us to exploit, showing the true impact of each player in each team’s lineup.

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