Sabres Star Deserves Early MVP Consideration

The Hart Memorial Trophy is awarded “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team” each season. The perennial contenders, Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche, Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers, and Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs, have won the trophy over the past three seasons. This season, the Buffalo Sabres have a player throwing his hat in the ring, Tage Thompson.

A Sabres player hasn’t been a Hart Trophy finalist since Dominik Hasek in 1998-1999. The Hall-of-Fame goaltender won the MVP award the two prior seasons, in 1997-1998 and 1996-1997. Pat LaFontaine is the only other Sabres player to be a finalist in the voting, earning the distinguishment with his 148-point season in 1992-1993.

The box score statistics show an uphill battle for Thompson to unseat MacKinnon for the award, as he is nine points behind the NHL’s scoring leader. He’s two goals behind the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov and the Florida Panthers’ Sam Reinhart for the league lead. He’s one behind Kucherov for the most even-strength goals in the NHL.

The Case for Tage Thompson

Thompson deserves to be in the MVP discussion because of his individual impact on the team. He has points in 11 of the 14 games for the Sabres, including four multi-point games. His line, along with JJ Peterka and Alex Tuch, has over 40% of Buffalo’s goals this season.

Related: How Peterka, Thompson, Tuch Compare to Other NHL Top Lines

Thompson’s early-season offensive attributes all measure near the top of the league, including his shot volume and scoring above-expected rates both in the 99th percentile, which is incredible. In theory, someone who shoots more frequently will see their shooting percentage regress to the average, but he is at a whopping 19.6% so far this season.

Buffalo’s top center also ranks in the 88th percentile in isolated powerplay performance, 88th percentile in relative play-driving, and 85th percentile in primary shot assists. These metrics make his teammates better, driving up his value to the team. Add in that he’s more physical this season and blocking shots at a significant rate, and it’s easy to tell that Thompson is all-in in trying to get the Sabres to the playoffs this season.

Comparable players to Thompson this early into the season include superstar Artemi Panarin (81% similarity score*), former Sabres Jack Eichel (78%) and Sam Reinhart (75%), and the NHL’s points-per-game leader Kirill Kaprizov (75%).

*Similarity scores via PuckLuck

Thompson’s WAR Metrics

Not only does PuckLuck’s player comps module showcase Thompson’s incredible attributes, but the wins-above replacement model has the Sabres forward ranked near the top of the league. Tage Thompson is the fourth-highest player in the NHL in PuckLuck’s WAR model.

WAR metrics are set to isolate an individual’s performance relative to his team, and Thompson has undoubtedly been Buffalo’s best player this season. When compared to the rest of the NHL, he ranks in the 99th percentile in even-strength offensive impact when on the ice. In other words, when Thompson is out there, the Sabres are scoring at an elite rate compared to when he is not. Notably, Rasmus Dahlin has a similar impact compared to defensemen across the league, likely thanks to a high correlation with Thompson and the top line.

Thompson isn’t a one-dimensional player by any means this season. Despite his line drawing the second-most difficult matchups on the Sabres, Thompson ranks in the 73rd percentile defensively at even strength. We saw his defensive impacts start to rise last season, as an injured Thompson had to find other ways to contribute positively to the team. He has kept that going this season without sacrificing any offense, using clean zone exits and transition play to create dangerous scoring chances.

For comparison, here’s where the aforementioned point and goal-scoring leaders rank in WAR, plus perennial finalists McDavid and Matthews:

• Tage Thompson: 100th percentile (4th overall)
• Connor McDavid: 99th percentile (7th)
• Auston Matthews: 95th percentile (37th)
• Nathan MacKinnon: 95th percentile (40th)
• Sam Reinhart: 94th percentile (41st)
• Nikita Kucherov: 90th percentile (73rd)
• Kirill Kaprizov: 90th percentile (74th)

Can Thompson Continue?

It’s great that Tage Thompson is putting up big numbers to begin the season. The question is, can he remain in the running going forward?

The predictive WAR metrics from PuckLuck say he can, putting him 10th in the league behind some of the usual suspects including MacKinnon, Matthews, and McDavid. As far as earning MVP votes, that will likely come down to team performance.

More Sabres: Former Sabres Forward Should Be on Adams’ Trade Radar

The Buffalo Sabres have had a rollercoaster season so far, losing five of their first six games, winning their next three, and losing the three after that, before two convincing victories over the Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers. The Hart trophy winner isn’t usually awarded to a player on a non-playoff team, so the Sabres will have to go on a run before the Thompson discussion really picks up steam.

Buffalo needs a combination of secondary scoring help and great goaltending to turn things around, which also may overshadow Thompson’s overall value to the team. Still, an increase in powerplay production is expected and will drive up Tage’s point totals, which should also help his case.

We’re only 14 games into the season, but the early impact of Buffalo’s top center is proving to be at an elite level. At the very least, after a down season in 2023-2024, the best version of Tage Thompson is back for the Sabres.