Scouting Sabres Opponents: Islanders Have New Secret Weapon

The New York Islanders brought a secret weapon on their roster this season, and it’s a player you may not have heard of. The Buffalo Sabres host the Islanders tonight at KeyBank Center, and you may notice a big number “7” on the ice in white. That player is 26-year-old Russian rookie, Maxim Tsyplakov.

Tsyplakov, the grandson of Soviet Hall-of-Famer Victor Tsyplakov, is an undrafted signee out of the KHL. Having just turned 26 on September 19th, he is eligible for the Calder Trophy, awarded “to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition.” Tsyplakov is already making a strong case for the award, ranking among some of the league’s elite in underlying individual impact metrics for New York.

As for the rest of the Islanders playing against the Sabres, well, they’re struggling. Star forward Mathew Barzal was sent home to Long Island to get evaluated for an upper-body injury, adding injury to insult. Let’s get into the scouting report of both clubs to see which areas the Sabres can exploit.

Game Preview: Sabres to Start Levi Against Slumping Islanders

Standings

Buffalo Sabres

2024-2025 Season

• Record: 4-5-1
• Points: 9
• Division Rank: 5th
• Conference Rank: 10th
• League Rank: 23rd

2024-2025 Projection (via PuckLuck)

• Record: 37-35-10
• Points: 84
• Division Rank: 5th
• Conference Rank: 10th
• League Rank: 23rd

New York Islanders

2024-2025 Season

• Record: 3-5-2
• Points: 8
• Division Rank: 8th
• Conference Rank: 16th
• League Rank: 29th

2024-2025 Projection (via PuckLuck)

• Record: 36-36-10
• Points: 82
• Division Rank: 6th
• Conference Rank: 11th
• League Rank: 23rd

Roster Comparison

Buffalo Sabres

• Forwards: 23rd
• Defense: 24th
• Goalies: 10th
• Powerplay: 32nd
• Penalty Kill: 26th

New York Islanders

• Forwards: 16th
• Defense: 17th
• Goalies: 25th
• Powerplay: 23rd
• Penalty Kill: 25th

Forwards, Defense, & Goalies

The Islanders rank about the middle of the league in roster construction, with middle-of-the-pack forwards and defensemen who are currently underperforming. The Sabres have a mix of underperforming and overperforming forwards, with a roster ranking in the bottom third of the NHL per PuckLuck.

On paper, the names Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov pop out as a good goalie tandem. Factoring in team environments and Sorokin’s dip in performance last season actually bumped the Islanders down toward the bottom of the league in goalie quality. The Sabres ranked high in goaltending initially, but we’re starting to see a dip as both Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi have struggled at times.

Sabres Powerplay vs. Islanders Penalty Kill

The Islanders are not very strong on the penalty kill but are very dangerous on the counter-attack. Simon Holmstrom had five shorthanded goals last season, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau had six shorthanded points. This is something the Sabres have been susceptible to early in the season, so they’ll have to be smart in their puck decisions once set up in the zone.

Buffalo ranks dead-last with the man advantage but is coming off two straight games with a powerplay goal. The Islanders rank dead last in penalty kill percentage, so the Sabres have a prime opportunity to keep the streak going.

Islanders Powerplay vs. Sabres Penalty Kill

With four goals so far on 31 attempts, the Islanders aren’t faring much better on the powerplay than the Sabres this season. New York is missing a key zone-entry man in Barzal, so that should make things even more difficult for the Isles. The Sabres currently match their roster projection of ranking 23rd in the NHL in killing off penalties but have a chance to improve upon that number tonight.

Line Matchups

McLeod Line vs. Horvat Line

With Barzal out and the lineup shuffled it’s tough to know for sure, but typically Bo Horvat’s line has been the point of emphasis for teams to shut down. That means Ryan McLeod’s line, with Dylan Cozens now on his right wing, will likely match up against them. It’s a fairly even matchup, with Horvat consistently getting higher shot quality and shot attempt rates but McLeod’s line scoring well above expected.

It can be argued that McLeod has also faced tougher opponents offensively than Horvat, Anders Lee, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau at this point in their careers.

Advantage: Even

More: How McLeod and Greenway Can Help Get Dylan Cozens Going

Thompson Line vs. Nelson Line

Brock Nelson’s line, along with the aforementioned Tsyplakov and Kyle Palmieri, have been the Islanders’ best. Tage Thompson’s line has undoubtedly been one of the best in the NHL, let alone on the Sabres. Tsyplakov is currently eighth in the entire NHL in PuckLuck’s WAR model, ranking in the 97th percentile in offensive impact, 75th in defensive, and 83rd on the powerplay. This is coming off a 31-goal, 47-point season in 65 KHL games for Spartak Moskva last season.

His line could be the wild card in the game, as Palmieri and Nelson also lead New York in points.

Thompson is no slouch himself in the model, ranking 15th in the league in wins above replacement. Based on talent and recency bias alone, the Sabres’ top line should have the edge.

Advantage: Sabres

Krebs Line vs. Cizikas Line

Other than Jason Zucker’s individual offense, there’s not much to love in the matchup between Zucker, Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn and Casey Cizikas, Pierre Engvall, and Simon Holmstrom. The Sabres are looking to Zucker to be the catalyst in getting Quinn going offensively, so perhaps they can do so in a relatively easy matchup tonight.

Advantage: Even

Lafferty Line vs. MacLean Line

Head coach Lindy Ruff is reuniting Beck Malenstyn, Sam Lafferty, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel as the Sabres’ sparkplug line. The limited sample of the speedy, aggressive trio has yielded encouraging results.

The Islanders will sparingly use their fourth line, as they’ve been pedestrian at best this season. Kyle MacLean averages less than 10 five-on-five minutes per game and has the worst expected goals-for percentage on the team at 24.64% per Evolving-Hockey.

Advantage: Sabres

Related: How Sabres Line of Malenstyn, Lafferty, Aube-Kubel Compares Across NHL

Sabres Islanders Matchup

The Sabres have averaged over four goals per game over the last seven games, while the Islanders have surrendered the ninth-least goals per game. Given that New York is the lowest-scoring team in the NHL, Buffalo should be able to pull off a win if they reach the four-goal mark yet again.

Devon Levi is primed for a bounce-back game from his loss in Columbus two weeks ago. He just has to be average for the Sabres to pull this one off.

Prediction: 4-2 Sabres over Islanders