Buffalo Sabres
Scouting Sabres Opponents: Seguin Returning Gives Stars Options
Rather than give you only a standard game preview, I figured it might be fun to dive deeper into the opponents of the Buffalo Sabres for each game this season. The Dallas Stars are one of the better teams in the NHL, but being good doesn’t always mean they match up well against the Sabres. In these new scouting articles, let’s look at line matchups, powerplay versus penalty kill, break down starting goalies, and identify any nuggets the Sabres can exploit.
Game Preview:Â Key Sabres Forward to Sit Out Versus Stars
Standings
Buffalo Sabres
2024-2025 Season
- Record: 2-4-1
- Points: 5
- Division Rank: 7th
- Conference Rank: 12th
- League Rank: 24th
2024-2025 Projection (via PuckLuck)
- Record: 36-36-11
- Points: 83
- Division Rank: 5
- Conference Rank: 11
- League Rank: 24
Dallas Stars
2024-2025 Season
- Record: 5-1-0
- Points: 10
- Division Rank: 2nd
- Conference Rank: 2nd
- League Rank: 3rd
2024-2025 Projection (via PuckLuck)
- Record: 49-22-11
- Points: 109
- Division Rank: 1
- Conference Rank: 1
- League Rank: 3
Roster Comparison
Buffalo Sabres
- Forwards: 23rd
- Defense: 25th
- Goalies: 9th
- Powerplay: 32nd
- Penalty Kill: 26th
Dallas Stars
- Forwards: 4th
- Defense: 11th
- Goalies: 17th
- Powerplay: 5th
- Penalty Kill: 1st
Forwards, Defense, & Goalies
The Sabres’ position group rankings from PuckLuck eerily coincide with their start to the season, with the forwards relying on the top line to carry the production and the defense underachieving based on name recognition and draft status.
The Stars, on the other hand, boast one of the strongest forward groups in the NHL. They run three lines deep in offensive production, and all four lines are defensively responsible. Their defense is solid, ranking in the top half of the league, led by Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley.
The goalies are where the Sabres have the projected edge, with Jake Oettinger struggling last season compared to when he first came into the league. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is trending in the other direction, as a goalie on the rise.
Sabres Powerplay vs. Stars Penalty Kill
The Sabres have struggled to find any solution to scoring on the powerplay, as they’re now 0 for 21 with the man advantage. Actual performance aside, their powerplay is ranked dead-last in the NHL by PuckLuck simply based on the personnel available.
A breakout powerplay game is not likely, as the Stars boast the best penalty kill units in the league per PuckLuck. They use a combination of rested fourth-liners Sam Steel and Colin Blackwell and experienced players like Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn up front. Rising star Wyatt Johnston also contributes shorthanded.
The Stars also went out and added Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba in the offseason, who are key penalty-killers. They team with Esa Lindell and Thomas Harley on the backend.
Their high ranking is reflected in the early results, as Dallas is atop the league with a 95.24% penalty kill percentage.
Stars Powerplay vs. Sabres Penalty Kill
The Stars’ powerplay has struggled in the early going, scoring only twice on 18 attempts. Their ranking of 28th in the NHL should improve, as their options with the man advantage are too talented for that to sustain.
Jason Robertson and Jamie Benn are historically good powerplay players, and Roope Hintz is a zone-entry monster. Add in Johnston and Heiskanen, and you have what should be one of the tougher units for the Sabres to shut down.
Buffalo is currently ranked 26th in the NHL in shorthanded success. That mirrors their PuckLuck rating down a man, so they’re about where you might expect. Given this, the Stars should have a good opportunity to net a goal or two on the powerplay tonight.
Line Matchups
McLeod Line vs. Hintz Line
The Sabres formed a shutdown line from day one in training camp in Jason Zucker, Ryan McLeod, and Jordan Greenway that has performed admirably given that they are starting twice as much in the defensive zone compared to the offensive zone.
They have a tough task today in limiting Robertson and Hintz, who are two of the best drivers of offense in the NHL. It’s unclear whether Johnston or Logan Stankoven will play on their right-wing tonight, but it won’t matter. This is one of those games that if McLeod and company break even in goal differential, it’s a win for the Sabres.
Mattias Samuelsson and Connor Clifton receive a lot of ice time with the McLeod line, so we’ll see if that correlation is something the Stars can exploit.
Cozens Line vs. Duchene Line
Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn have underperformed offensively this season, and tonight they’ll likely match up against Matt Duchene’s line, which includes Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin. Marchment is an imposing presence at 6’5″ and Duchene and Seguin have been in the league a long time and know how to produce.
Jiri Kulich is the x-factor in this matchup, as he has been one of Buffalo’s best players over his last few games. He’ll have to boost the offensive zone chances for the Sabres, as the Stars trio here are leading their entire team in expected goals-for percentage.
Thompson Line vs. Benn Line
If there’s one matchup the Sabres can exploit, it’s getting Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka, and Alex Tuch out against Jamie Benn’s line. Benn will be the left winger with either Johnston or Mavrik Bourque, but he is carrying a putrid 34.73% expected goals-for percentage to begin the season for the Stars.
With Thompson and Peterka the clear scoring threats, the Sabres can win the game with a big performance from their top line.
Krebs Line vs. Steel Line
There’s no telling what might happen in a battle of the fourth lines between the Sabres and Stars. It may not matter, as both clubs deploy their lines in limited defensive situations. The early-season offensive numbers aren’t good on either side, so it’s likely a stalemate.
Starting Goalies
Oettinger, as mentioned earlier, wasn’t himself last season. His start to this season is much different, as he’s second in the league with 8.13 goals saved above expected per Evolving-Hockey. The Stars will rely on him to help stonewall Thompson and Peterka. Dallas should cruise to victory if he can post even an average performance.
Luukkonen was the difference in the game in Chicago, outplaying Arvid Soderblom to help the Sabres defeat the Blackhawks. The performance boosted him to 30th in the NHL in GSAx. The Sabres will need him to continue his strong play if they want to steal a victory over the Stars.