Luukkonen Deal Looks Better As Swayman Contract Dispute Lingers

The Boston Bruins and starting goalie Jeremy Swayman are in the middle of an ugly contract dispute. The Bruins traded former Sabres netminder and former Vezina winner Linus Ullmark this offseason to the Ottawa Senators, leaving Swayman in position to garner even more starts in 2024-2025. Swayman seized the majority of the starts last season but is a restricted free agent, unable to come to terms on a deal this offseason.

The Buffalo Sabres were in a similar situation over the summer, with starting goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen hitting restricted free agency and filing for arbitration. The Sabres and Luukkonen agreed to terms on a four-year, $4.75 million average annual value contract before arbitration, preserving the good relationship both sides have.

Swayman Contract

Swayman has not been so lucky after dealing with the aftermath of an arbitration case from last summer. He was awarded a one-year deal worth $3.475 million, at the cost of having to sit through a hearing where the Bruins management picks apart his game. Swayman played great in 2023-2024 on the contract, hit restricted free agency, and now, understandably, wants to cash in on his next deal.

Per Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, the Bruins had an eight-year, $7.5 million AAV contract on the table. Swayman is reportedly seeking $9.5 million per season on an eight-year deal. Either deal would be significant, with Swayman’s ask doubling the yearly value and term the Sabres handed Luukkonen this offseason.

On top of the distance between the contract dollars offered and wanted, the negotiations have leaked into the public. The Bruins referenced a $64 million deal on the table in a press conference, which Swayman’s camp was quick to deny. Swayman’s agency representative, Lewis Gross, posted the following statement on Instagram:

More Luukkonen: How Devon Levi Plays Into Luukkonen Contract Negotiations

Swayman vs. Luukkonen

The question with goaltending is always a risk versus reward. Performance year-to-year at the position can be very volatile, and the best goalies one season are not necessarily the best in the next.

Due to this, the cost of a goalie is highly debated. Should a goalie be one of the higher-paid players on the team? Is it better to invest in cheaper players at the position, hoping for a similar output?

The case of Swayman versus Luukkonen is a good example. Both goalies are 25 years old and reaching the same point in their careers as go-to starters. Swayman broke out last season, posting the NHL’s fifth-best goals-saved above expected number, at 22.79 per Evolving-Hockey. Luukkonen also broke out, coming in at one spot behind Swayman in the league ranks at 22.46 GSAx.

Considering Luukkonen started 54 games to Swayman’s 44, the Bruins netminder’s rates are better. Swayman saved about 0.53 goals above expected per game, while Luukkonen saved just under 0.44 goals above expected.

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Salary Cap Implications

Still, if you’re weighing cost-effective contracts and the economics of the position, the Sabres are in a much better position than the Bruins. Boston is also paying their backup goalie, Joonas Korpisalo, $3 million per season over the next four seasons. The Sabres still have Devon Levi on his entry-level deal, and, pending a splash season, are projected to have him at a similar rate or cheaper.

Even if Swayman accepts the Bruins’ offer of $8 million per season, Boston will have 12.5% of their cap tied up on goalies. Buffalo, meanwhile, only has 6.4% of their cap allotted to Luukkonen and Levi this season.

Without a proven third option in net, the Boston Bruins don’t have much of a choice other than to invest in Swayman. The Florida Panthers proved with Sergei Bobrovsky last season that you can still build a Cup-contending roster with a starting goalie on a large contract, but it’s not ideal. The Sabres have managed the position well so far and should be content to have two young netminders on team-friendly deals.