Sabres Analysis
How Peterka, Thompson, Tuch Compare to Other NHL Top Lines
Towards the end of last season, former Buffalo Sabres head coach promoted sophomore forward JJ Peterka to the team’s top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. The trio was an instant hit offensively, scoring 13 goals and registering 27 points at even-strength in 12 games to end the year. Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch are poised to begin the 2024-2025 season together under new coach Lindy Ruff, setting the table for what could be one of the league’s most dangerous first lines.
Line chemistry is usually a trial-by-error process. Coaches will mix and match different line combinations until one or two of their lines seem to “click”. With my new line chemistry tools developed for PuckLuck, we can see how each player on the line complements each other using their strengths and tendencies.
We can also measure lines against their peers, determining traits that make different lines successful. Breaking players’ attributes into four categories – player profile, shooting mentality, play-driving, and physicality – helps determine where the best trios lean, based on what they’re expected to accomplish.
Here, we’ll roll through the traits of Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch, seeing how they mesh together and compare to some of the other prominent lines across the NHL.
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Player Profiles
By classifying each player’s profile, we can determine if they are more offensive-minded, defensive-minded, or equally attentive to both, known as a “two-way” player. Based on measurements of playoff teams, successful first lines have an offensive lean. They’ll usually be the primary focus of the best opposing defensive players or will match up against other top-scoring lines to try to outscore them.
Offensive, Defensive, or Two-Way
A 65% to 68% offensive lean, based on PuckLuck’s line chemistry metrics, is the goal for a top-scoring line. Here’s how each player on Buffalo’s first line profiles:
- JJ Peterka
- Offensive: 62%
- Defensive: 38%
- Profile: Offensive
- Tage Thompson
- Offensive: 59%
- Defensive: 41%
- Profile: Two-Way
- Alex Tuch
- Offensive: 74%
- Defensive: 26%
- Profile: Offensive
The trio combines to lean towards a 64% offensive profile, slightly under the desired range. Getting hung up on a percentage point or two in this exercise isn’t important, since there are many ways for a line to reach the outcome they want.
Here’s a visualization of how Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch’s profiles mesh.
Then there’s the rest of the league, where some of the top lines across the NHL closely compare to the Sabres top trio. Some, like the Florida Panthers’ Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Reinhart, are asked to do more defensively and are more of a two-way line.
Others, like the Winnipeg Jets’ Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi, are strictly offensive. The Jets rely on one of the league’s better third-line combinations in Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton to handle the bulk of defensive matchups, freeing up their top line to play more freely with an attacking mindset.
Let’s roll through a visualization of the top-line combinations throughout the league, in comparison to the Sabres’ best.
The comparisons show a heavy lean towards offense for common first lines across the league. The Sabres are no different, with Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch closely fitting the standard profile of teams’ top trios.
Buffalo’s top line can be classified as “Offensive”, which is exactly where they need to be. Consider phase one of the chemistry check a success.
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Shooting Mentality
One of the obvious line-building components is matching up playmakers with shooters. A playmaking center is often paired with a good finisher to maximize both players’ talents. In Buffalo’s case, the team’s best shooter is their top center. Thompson is among the league’s elite in hardest shot and scoring above expectation metrics.
Besides the ability to finish and getting quality chances is a player’s willingness to shoot. Combining too many pass-first players could lead to not enough shots. Combining too many trigger-happy forwards could limit quality opportunities and make lines too one-dimensional.
Shooter, Passer, or Balanced
Here’s how the Sabres’ top line profiles in shooting mentality:
- JJ Peterka
- Shooter: 54%
- Passer: 46%
- Mentality: Balanced
- Tage Thompson
- Shooter: 52%
- Passer: 48%
- Mentality: Balanced
- Alex Tuch
- Shooter: 49%
- Passer: 51%
- Mentality: Balanced
Unsurprisingly, there’s a slight shooting lean between Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch, the top three goal-scorers for the Sabres in 2023-2024. That said, there’s enough puck movement and playmaking within the line to classify them as balanced.
Peterka and Thompson rank in the top 10% of the league in individual shot rates, but the Sabres’ shooting percentage outranked their own when they were on the ice. This hints that they help create offense for teammates beyond assists, which is a trait of playmaking as well.
Here’s how the trio’s mentalities fit together:
When combined, you can see that Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch cover nearly the entire spectrum of shooting and playmaking metrics. The gray lines represent the first lines from the previous video’s shooting mentalities, showing that the best possible combinations across the league have a tough time outranking the balance that Buffalo’s top line displays.
So far, the Sabres have a first line that qualifies as “Offensive” and “Balanced”, making them two for two in what is desired from NHL top lines.
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Play-Driving
The importance of players that drive play in the right direction on the ice can’t be said enough. These players are constantly playing in the offensive zone over the defensive zone, which is an obvious formula for success. Not every player on the team is a play-driver, as some are more dependent on teammates to get the puck into the offensive zone.
This doesn’t mean a dependent player can’t be good, as we’ve seen cases of scoring specialists or other contributors who can take care of things given whatever situation they’re stuck in. It’s just easier to outperform the opposing team if you’re consistently playing in the offensive end and limiting defensive situations.
Play-Driver, Hybrid, or Dependent
You may have guessed, but ideally, a team’s top line constitutes a play-driving ability. Here’s how Buffalo’s top trio ranks:
- JJ Peterka
- Offensive Zone: 57%
- Defensive Zone: 43%
- Play Driving: Play-Driver
- Tage Thompson
- Offensive Zone: 56%
- Defensive Zone: 44%
- Play Driving: Play-Driver
- Alex Tuch
- Offensive Zone: 68%
- Defensive Zone: 32%
- Play Driving: Play-Driver
Only one Sabres player, Jack Quinn, recorded better play-driving metrics than Alex Tuch. With even-strength zone time playing a role in measuring play-driving, relative-to-teammate metrics are also important to weigh in on the category. Tuch is constantly shouldering the load in transition for his teammates and keeps plays alive in the offensive zone.
Peterka and Thompson are no slouches either, making the trio dangerous together. Combined, they average about a 60% to 40% offensive zone to defensive zone ratio. The top lines of playoff teams last season averaged about 56% to 44%.
Here’s how that looks, visually, taking zone time measurements out of the equation to balance out team effects:
The chemistry string through the first three categories for top lines across the league reads “Offensive” – “Balanced” – “Play-Driver”. Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch mimic that string, which is encouraging for their long-term success.
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Physicality
For years, you’ve probably heard analysts tell you that hits don’t matter. That’s partially true, as aggressive hitters put themselves out of the play and hitting means your team does not have the puck. Then you watch the Florida Panthers win the Stanley Cup with players like Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Nick Cousins and think, “Playing physical and getting under the skin of opponents has to have some value, right?”
Physicality is more than just hitting. Drawing penalties is a big component of putting your team in a better situation to win. Of course, many players who draw a lot of penalties also take a lot of penalties, since they’re usually in the mix and scrums.
This category measures the relation between hits and penalties initiated and taken to the lines across the league. It’s a looser correlation to winning, but there is an aspect of being too aggressive or passive as a line that makes it detrimental to the team. Ideally, you want to be engaged and involved as a trio.
Aggressive, Involved, or Passive
Here’s how Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch register in the physicality department:
- JJ Peterka
- Aggressor: 27%
- Pacifist: 73%
- Physicality: Passive
- Tage Thompson
- Aggressor: 50%
- Pacifist: 50%
- Physicality: Involved
- Alex Tuch
- Aggressor: 57%
- Pacifist: 43%
- Physicality: Aggressive
This category is the biggest variance between Buffalo’s top three forwards. Peterka is categorized as passive since he rarely initiates hits. He draws many more penalties than he takes thanks to his speed and ability with the puck, so overall this categorization is positive.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Tuch, who avoids contact with the puck but will run down opponents when they have it from time to time. He is also a willing fighter and is a net negative in penalty differential. Although that sounds negative on the surface, combining that with Peterka’s passiveness brings a balance necessary to the line.
Then there’s Tage Thompson, who is a mix of both. Thompson rarely fights, which is good for the Sabres since they want to keep him on the ice as much as possible. He is close to average in the NHL in hits-for rates and avoids contact when in possession. He also draws more penalties than he takes, balancing out the aggression metrics.
The physicality measures vary from team to team, but most NHL first lines look like the Sabres’. The goal is to be about 46% aggressive and 54% passive to fit among playoff teams’ top lines, and Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch average about 47% to 53%.
Add “Involved” to the classification of Buffalo’s top trio.
Line Chemistry
In summary, here’s how the Sabres’ Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch compare to the best top lines across the league:
Offensive | Defensive | Profile | Shooter | Passer | Shooting Mentality | O-Zone | D-Zone | Play-Driving | Aggressor | Pacifist | Physicality | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JJ Peterka | 61.96% | 38.04% | OFFENSIVE | 53.97% | 46.03% | BALANCED | 57.08% | 42.92% | PLAY-DRIVER | 26.74% | 73.26% | PASSIVE |
Tage Thompson | 58.83% | 41.17% | TWO-WAY | 51.81% | 48.19% | BALANCED | 55.84% | 44.16% | PLAY-DRIVER | 49.57% | 50.43% | INVOLVED |
Alex Tuch | 74.45% | 25.55% | OFFENSIVE | 48.79% | 51.21% | BALANCED | 68.14% | 31.86% | PLAY-DRIVER | 57.21% | 42.79% | AGGRESSIVE |
Line 1 Average | 64.40% | 35.60% | OFFENSIVE | 51.52% | 48.48% | BALANCED | 59.72% | 40.28% | PLAY-DRIVER | 47.27% | 52.73% | INVOLVED |
NHL Line 1 Goal | 67.35% | 32.65% | OFFENSIVE | 47.84% | 52.16% | BALANCED | 55.56% | 44.44% | PLAY-DRIVER | 46.17% | 53.83% | INVOLVED |
Chemistry | 85.25% | 81.63% | 79.18% | 94.47% |
The Sabres’ trio boasts a variance of only 3% to 4% from the best top lines across the NHL in terms of profile, shooting mentality, play-driving, and physicality. There’s an execution aspect to any of this, of course, but the chemistry makeup of the line is there.
When converting to a percentile ranking, the Sabres receive a chemistry grade of 85% for their top line. A bounce-back season from Thompson and another step from JJ Peterka could launch them into elite company, but they’re already bordering on “A” territory.
The supporting cast will be the biggest key to Buffalo’s success. In the coming days, we’ll run through the other lines and defense pairs to determine how well the rest of the Sabres roster fits together.