State of the Ottawa Senators; Banking on Former Vezina Winner

The reintroduction of the Atlantic Division after a busy offseason continues with the Ottawa Senators. The Senators hope to pass the Buffalo Sabres in the standings via trades and free-agent signings to improve the roster. Ottawa kept the core of their team intact while retooling and swapping quality talent in and out of the organization. They also have a new coach, Travis Green, who they hope can take them to the next level.

The Senators needed a big offseason after a disappointing 2023-2024. Like the Sabres, they were a hot pick to leap into the playoffs, but instead, they finished seventh in the division. Goals weren’t quite as easy to come by, and the goaltending was too inconsistent to be a true contender. Their -26 goal-differential was fourth-worst in the Eastern Conference.

Offseason Goals

The core building blocks of a solid team exist on the Senators’ roster. They have three good-to-very-good centers, Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, and Shane Pinto. Their leader, Brady Tkachuk, is one of the most respected young players in the NHL. Jake Sanderson is a young stud defenseman and Thomas Chabot continues to provide offense from the backend.

The supporting cast is the issue, with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson shouldering most of the load. Ottawa’s bottom-six provided little-to-no support and needed some turnover. Paying Jakob Chychrun on top of Sanderson and Chabot was a bit overkill, despite Chychrun leading all Senators’ defensemen in points.

Most importantly, Ottawa needed to find a solution at goaltender. Joonas Korpisalo is an okay goalie in the right environment, but the Senators are built to shelter their goalie. Anton Forsberg is good in flashes but should not be relied upon in important starts.

Forwards

The Senators needed to address their bottom-six forwards this offseason and replace Vladimir Tarasenko’s production as he was a trade deadline casualty. As a result, out went five bottom-of-the-lineup regulars and a depth forward. In come top-six veteran contributor David Perron and a couple of bottom-six difference makers.

Perron immediately slots into the second line opposite Giroux. His shooting ability figures to be a perfect complement to Giroux’s passing, although both players are aging at 36 years old.

Michael Amadio is a quality third-line contributor and gives Ottawa a right shot to join forces with one of their top three centers and promising talent Ridly Greig. Noah Gregor added burst and a high-compete level to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fourth line last season, and projects to do the same in Ottawa.

The forward group as a whole didn’t see any major upgrades, but a reshuffling of pieces could be the right mix to complement the core. The jury will be out on the offseason additions, but it’s the core of the Senators that will be under the microscope.

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Defense

Losing a good all-around defenseman like Jakob Chychrun is a big blow for the Senators, but they should be excited about the steady defensive presence Nick Jensen brings. Jensen is routinely considered one of the better penalty-killers in the league as well, which is something Chychrun does not provide. Considering the swap with the Washington Capitals was considered a salary cap move, the Senators did well to improve in certain areas in the deal.

The release of Erik Brannstrom was a head-scratching move, as the blueliner has exceptional defensive underlying statistics as a third-pair contributor. He ended up latching on with the Colorado Avalanche on a one-year, league-minimum deal, proving he wouldn’t have broken the bank if he negotiated with the Senators.

Chabot’s health will be even more important for Ottawa in 2024-2025, as he’s battled injuries the last couple of seasons. Other defensemen, including Sanderson, need to step up offensively to replace Chychrun’s production.

Goaltending

If the Senators were successful in one area this offseason, it was in acquiring a bonafide number-one goalie. Swapping the inconsistent Korpisalo for former Vezina winner Linus Ullmark was one of the biggest offseason moves on paper.

If there’s any cause for concern, it’s that every goaltender in Boston has succeeded in recent years. Ullmark’s numbers were solid behind a suspect defensive environment in Buffalo and then spiked to top-of-the-league levels with the Bruins. The Senators have trended more like those Sabres teams than the Bruins the last couple of seasons, although Green and the new coaching staff will undoubtedly try to change that.

Ullmark’s goals-saved above-expected numbers could drop, but even above-average goaltending could drive up Ottawa’s standings point projection.

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Line Combinations

The general line combinations are pretty spelled out to begin the season, but it’s tough to predict the precise matchups and usage Travis Green has in mind. The centers all bring different elements, so instead of mixing and matching wingers up and down the lineup, it may be a revolving door of pivotmen to find the right chemistry.

Here’s the projected opening night lineup:

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stutzle – Drake Batherson

David Perron – Josh Norris – Claude Giroux

Ridly Greig – Shane Pinto – Michael Amadio

Boris Katchouk – Noah Gregor – Zack MacEwen

Defense

Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub

Thomas Chabot – Nick Jensen

Jacob Bernard-Docker – Travis Hamonic

Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Starter)

Anton Forsberg (Backup)

Housing four right-shot defensemen on the NHL roster will likely force someone to play their off-side. Tyler Kleven got some run in Ottawa last season and could fill that left side on the third pair instead. The Senators boast a bonafide number-one line, quality top-four defense, and a top-tier goaltender, giving them the framework to contend for the playoffs.

Here’s how the powerplay could look:

Powerplay 1

Brady Tkachuk

Drake Batherson – Josh Norris – Tim Stutzle

Thomas Chabot

Powerplay 2

Ridly Greig

David Perron – Shane Pinto – Claude Giroux

Jake Sanderson

The Sabres can relate to the drop in powerplay production, as the Senators went from eighth in 2022-2023 to bottom-ten in the NHL in 2024-2025. The same pieces remain in place from both years, so it’s a matter of strategy and execution more than anything. Ottawa could see a bounce-back in powerplay goals, boosting the standings outlook.

The revamped penalty kill in Ottawa could look like this:

Penalty Kill 1

Claude Giroux – Ridly Greig

Jake Sanderson – Nick Jensen

Penalty Kill 2

Noah Gregor – Boris Katchouk

Travis Hamonic – Artem Zub

Losing Kelly and Joseph means more emphasis will fall on the veteran Giroux as a key penalty killer. The Senators may give some of their stars a run on the unit to form more of a “power-kill” mentality.

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Projection

The PuckLuck model was partial to the Ottawa Senators last season, and the offseason they had only reinforced that. Ullmark’s projected GSAx is likely inflated by his run in Boston, which is a big part of the inflated projection. That said, the Senators project to finish with around 98 points in the standings, putting them in a playoff spot.

According to the model, Ottawa has an 85-point floor and a 110-point ceiling, deeming an improvement on last season highly likely. They’re projected to finish fourth in the Atlantic Division, seventh in the Eastern Conference, and 10th in the NHL.

The Senators are also projected to jump the Sabres in the standings, who currently have a 94-point projection. The four-point separation could be the difference between making the playoffs and missing. The most volatile factor is the goaltending, where the Sabres hope Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen continues to shine and the Senators hope Ullmark is a pluck-and-play Vezina contender again. Whoever receives more quality play at the position could be the better team.

In a strong Atlantic Division, the offseason moves made by the Senators could be the difference between a wild card spot in the playoffs and another lost season. In what could be Claude Giroux’s last season, now might be the best time to get serious about giving this a run.