State of the Montreal Canadiens; Sleeping Through the Offseason

Now that the NHL offseason moves have quieted, it’s time to look across the Atlantic Division to see which teams improved and how the Buffalo Sabres stack up against their most common opponents. Starting with the last-place Montreal Canadiens, we’ll roll through all the trades, free-agent signings, and potential prospect promotions from this offseason that can boost the 2024-2025 roster.

The Canadiens finished eighth of eight in the Atlantic last season with 76 standings points. They were two points behind the seventh-place Ottawa Senators and trailed the Sabres by eight points. Their -53 goal-differential was bottom-five in the NHL, as evidenced by their 28th-place league finish.

Offseason Goals

The Canadiens entered the offseason with plenty of cap space, given Carey Price’s $10.5 million LTIR status. Much like the Sabres of the past couple of seasons though, they’re focused on developing young talent. Should they want to compete, adding immediate help was an option. However, judging by their approach, they weren’t determined to improve upon last season’s standings placement.

Montreal is building up a solid prospect pool but won’t reap benefits for years to come. Instead, they’re left in a flux state – one that Buffalo is all too familiar with.

Forwards

Montreal’s team construction is flawed from the get-go, with Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky forming the top line. They’re a quality top-six combination but require more secondary support than other top lines. Suzuki had 77 points in 82 games last season, but Caufield registered 65 and Slafkovsky had 50 in the same amount of games. Those are more second-line numbers than top-heavy ones.

To compete with the big teams in the division, the Canadiens needed to add top-six talent to the roster. They have plenty of bottom-six contributors and had to give their top trio massive support. Instead, they only added depth forward Alex Barre-Boulet and returned their entire group of forwards.

Barre-Boulet is a powerplay and shooting specialist and can provide offense in spurts. He’s not a long-term solution in the top six, leaving the Canadiens falling short of significant improvement.

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Defense

Their defense also relied on next-tier talent to step up in big roles. Mike Matheson is more of a number three or four defenseman playing as a number one. David Savard is losing a step and is not a primary shutdown defenseman in the league. Kaiden Guhle is a blossoming top-four defenseman but doesn’t have a bonafide partner to play with.

Another top-four defenseman to play with Guhle should’ve been the goal, but the Canadiens did nothing to add to the position. Top prospect Lane Hutson is ready to earn a full-time NHL role and can bring more offensive skills to the backend. Other than that, Montreal is running back the same group on defense.

Goaltending

The Canadiens were not concerned with upgrading their goaltending this offseason, like the forwards and defense. Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau were solid in net as part of a three-goalie rotation with Jake Allen last season. Allen departed at the trade deadline, revealing Montreal’s future in goal.

Outside of an outlier season from one of the two goalies, the Canadiens are not projected to see a big jump in the standings. Montreal’s goaltending situation requires more goal support to equate to wins, but none was added.

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Line Combinations

Montreal’s opening roster is essentially the same as it was at the end of last season. They finished 2-4-4 in the final 10 games of the season. The one noticeable difference is the expected return of forward Kirby Dach. Dach adds versatility to the middle-six, as he can center the second line or complement another on the wing.

Here’s how the opening night lineup could look:

Forwards

Cole Caufield – Nick Suzuki – Juraj Slafkovsky

Alex Newhook – Kirby Dach – Josh Anderson

Joshua Roy – Christian Dvorak – Brendan Gallagher

Rafael Harvey-Pinard – Jake Evans – Joel Armia

Defense

Mike Matheson – David Savard

Kaiden Guhle – Justin Barron

Lane Hutson – Arber Xhekaj

Goalies

Sam Montembeault (Starter)

Cayden Primeau (Backup)

Joshua Roy made a nice contribution as a mid-season call-up last year and can continue growing. To offset that, Josh Anderson and Brendan Gallagher are on the decline. Without Dach and Alex Newhook carrying more of the offensive load, the Canadiens are stuck in the mud.

Here’s how the powerplay could shake out:

Powerplay 1

Juraj Slafkovsky

Cole Caufield – Kirby Dach – Nick Suzuki

Mike Matheson

Powerplay 2

Brendan Gallagher

Alex Newhook – Josh Anderson – Joshua Roy

Lane Hutson

Except for Dach, the bulk of Montreal’s top powerplay unit has been together for a while now. Their 27th-ranked powerplay in 2023-2024 hints that changes could come early if the unit doesn’t find its groove. Hutson for Matheson is the most likely swap, as the young defenseman put up massive point totals over the past two seasons at Boston University.

Here’s how Montreal’s penalty kill shapes up:

Penalty Kill 1

Jake Evans – Joel Armia

Mike Matheson – David Savard

Penalty Kill 2

Christian Dvorak – Rafael Harvey-Pinard

Kaiden Guhle – Justin Barron

Jake Evans and Joel Armia have been a solid penalty-killing duo for years. Montreal’s units have not been improved though, and they finished 24th in the NHL last season.

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Projection

Projecting the Montreal Canadiens anywhere than dead-last in the Atlantic Division again is difficult without any major offseason activity. PuckLuck’s model predictably has them projected to finish eighth in the division. On top of that, their projected three-point regression to 73 standings points places them 15th in the Eastern Conference and 30th in the entire league.

According to Marc Dumont of Montreal Hockey Now, both the Canadiens and their fans are in lockstep – a big move is not yet necessary.

“Basically, it’s not time to make a move yet,” Dumont says. “Everyone is on the same page, including fans and management, but we’re getting close.” Dumont wrote more in-depth about the fans’ perspective on the state of the team.

Here’s an excerpt from the piece:

“Until the Habs can prove their incredibly young blue line is ready to match some of the best forwards in the league in a seven-game series, or that they can actually control more shots and scoring chances than their opponents on most nights, or that a crucial player like Kirby Dach can maintain his health throughout the year, or that they’re no longer statistically likely to finish dead last in their division, the discussion surrounding the importance of qualifying for the playoffs should be pushed to the back burner, as there’s still a lot of work to do before we can honestly suggest the Canadiens are ready to compete with the top teams in the NHL.”

Montreal Hockey Now: A Realistic Approach To The Rebuild

There’s an argument to be made that every team outside of the playoffs in the Atlantic improved this offseason. The top-tier teams in the division did their best to maintain, if not improve, their standings position. That leaves the Canadiens destined for another lost season, barring some major surprise move between now and the start of the season.

For more analysis on the Montreal Canadiens and their offseason, check out Montreal Hockey Now.